Chelsea’s hopes of qualifying for the 2025/26 Champions League campaign are hanging on a knife-edge, although they’re firmly in the thick of things.
The Blues went into the international break on the back of a gut-wrenching 1-0 defeat against London rivals Arsenal, which dealt a massive blow to their top-four hopes.
The result saw the Gunners extend their lead above Chelsea to nine points, while the Blues sit five points behind third-placed Nottingham Forest in the Premier League standings.
Chelsea remain locked in a seven-way battle for a Champions League spot, with just five points separating them from 10th-placed Bournemouth, who still have a fighting chance.
With nine Premier League games remaining this season, the Blues will need a near-perfect run of form to bolster their chances of participating in Europe’s premier tournament next season.
Chelsea could be offered another timely boost amid reports that five teams could be heading to the Champions League next season.
That remains a serious possibility, although it’s not yet certain as it depends heavily on the performances of English clubs in European competitions this season.
Chelsea also have a role to play in turning that possibility into a certainty depending on how far they go in the Europa Conference League.
Nevertheless, the race for a Champions League berth is set to reach a mouth-watering climax over the next couple of months.
One of the fixtures fans will be looking forward to is the penultimate game of the season when Chelsea host Manchester United at the Bridge.
That game could decide the Blues’ fate, so those looking to catch all the action live should head over to Seatsnet.com to buy Chelsea vs Manchester United tickets at competitive prices.
Read on as we assess Chelsea’s chances of booking a spot in the tournament heading into the run-in.
Chelsea need to turn a corner and fast
Enzo Maresca made a flying start to life at Chelsea and had the Blues perched in the top three for most of the first half of the season.
At one point, the Blues were considered serious title contenders, and in mid-December, they were only behind Liverpool on the Premier League table.
Maresca’s troops looked well on track to secure Champions League football.
But their campaign took a wrong turn during the festive period, and their electrifying form has since taken an alarming nosedive.
Since their slump began, Chelsea have been relatively solid at their own headquarters.
Most of their points have come at Stamford Bridge, with Maresca’s side picking up home wins over four of the bottom five clubs since late January.
However, they have failed to replicate that form on their travels, going eight games across all competitions without a win on the road.
Of the other top four challengers, Brighton & Hove Albion are comfortably in the best form, with Fabian Hurzeler’s side firing on all cylinders at this late stage in the season.
The Seagulls were held to a 2-2 draw by reigning champions Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium before the international break.
That draw halted an outstanding run of six consecutive wins across all competitions – a streak that kicked off with back-to-back wins against Chelsea in the FA Cup and the Premier League.
Chelsea’s other top-four rivals have been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks.
Of the seven contenders, only Newcastle United, Fulham, and Aston Villa went into the international break with a win in the bag.
Forest are the only other side that went into the two-week break with consecutive wins, while Bournemouth look in the most danger of running out of steam after going four games without a win.
Chelsea face daunting final lap with at least three high-profile games lined up
Chelsea are gearing up for a daunting home stretch with the Blues set to face three of the traditional “Big Six” as well as a couple of other tricky fixtures against teams with huge ambitions.
The Blues will kick off their nine-game run-in at home to fellow London strugglers Tottenham Hotspur – a game that could see the demand for Chelsea tickets soar, given what’s at stake.
The fixture list also includes four tricky away games against West London rivals Brentford and Fulham, as well as Newcastle and 2024/25 surprise package Forest.
The trip to City Ground is on the final day of the season, and depending on the outcome of the other eight games, it could be Chelsea’s final chance to secure a Champions League spot.
Recognising his side’s struggles on the road, Maresca has previously admitted that the Blues will need to pick up as many points as they can at the Bridge, although that wouldn’t be a cakewalk either.
The Blues will host Premier League champions-elect Liverpool (on what could yet prove their coronation day).
Their other four home games will come against teams in the bottom eight, but there are no easy games in the Premier League, especially at this crucial stage of the season.
Chelsea will also face a baptism of fire in their final five games. In addition to hosting Liverpool, Maresca’s side will also square off with Everton, Newcastle, Man United, and Forest.
On paper, Man City have the easiest run-in, with their remaining games coming against teams outside the Premier League top seven.
Newcastle have the advantage of a game in hand over each of their top four rivals and will climb to fourth if they win that game.
However, they still have to face Villa, Arsenal, and Brighton away from home.
Meanwhile, Fulham have the toughest schedule. They face Arsenal and Liverpool in back-to-back games after the international break.
As if that’s not enough, they’d also have to deal with Man City on the final day.
What do Chelsea need to make top four?
If we’re going by Opta’s supercomputer prediction, Chelsea have a slightly better than one-in-four chance of finishing in the top four.
Their odds go up to 48% if five English teams get Champions League football, but even then, Forest, Man City, and Newcastle have a better chance of finishing in the top four or five.
Last season, Chelsea would have needed at least 64 points to finish fifth – a tally that would also have been enough to do so in all but one of the previous five campaigns.
If they’re going to stand a chance this term, Maresca’s troops need to pick up 15 points (five wins) from their remaining nine games.
