The most prestigious horse race in the United States will take place on May 3.
The Kentucky Derby has been running for over 150 years now, and it almost always delivers as a spectacle.
You can make comparisons with some of the other world’s great horse races – the Grand National, Melbourne Cup and Arc de Triomphe – in that it is an event that transcends the sport of horse racing.
As ever, there are plenty of discussion points in the lead-up to the race. The Kentucky Derby is somewhat unique in its qualifying series – known as the Road to the Kentucky Derby – which pits the majority of runners in a series of prep races all leading up to the showdown under the iconic Twin Spires of Churchill Downs.
That means plenty of the horses will have come up against each other already, leading to plenty of opinions as to who will come out on top.
For those not in the loop, we can break down what to look out for in America’s most beloved horse race:
A Quick Overview:
The Kentucky Derby is run over 1¼ miles. The race takes about two minutes – it has the tagline of ‘the fastest two minutes in sports’.
The field can be a maximum of 20, and it looks like we should have the full complement this year. It’s a highly tactical race, with a mixture of pacesetters (front-running horses), stalkers (those that sit behind the leaders), and closers (those that come from behind).
Getting the tactics right is absolutely key so that the horses can get in position for the final dash.
The Story on the Road
Journalism has emerged as the favourite in the betting markets. If you place horse bets, you’ll know to take that candidacy with a pinch of salt.
The Derby has a strike rate for favourites of about 35 percent, but it’s been several years since a starting favourite has won the race. That said, Journalism ticks several of the boxes that you’d want from a potential Kentucky Derby winner, including winning the key indicator race, the Santa Anita Derby.
There are, of course, several other interesting names on the card, and it would be no real shock to see a horse like Sovereignty, Sandman, Tappan Street, or Burnham Square take the win.
The latter was the points leader on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Although we would stress that it is not always the best indicator for success. There have been plenty of big odds winners in recent years, so it is worth looking further down the card to see if you can spot some value.
The Japanese Pair
There has been growing interest in the Kentucky Derby from Japan in recent years, and the upshot is that the Japanese have been gunning for the two international slots available for the race.
This year, the Japanese will send two horses, Luxor Café and Admire Daytona. Many people believe that the former has a huge chance. He will take a lot of money in the betting markets from Japanese fans.
A Japanese runner, Forever Young, almost won it last year, so that will embolden those who believe a Japanese-trained horse will win it sooner rather than later.
Other Talking Points
The big story is that the most dominant modern trainer in US horse racing will be making a return to the Derby after a three-year suspension.
Bob Baffert is a legend of the sport, a Hall of Famer, who has won this race six times (joint all-time record). He brings Citizen Bull and Rodriguez for a tilt at number seven.
They aren’t among the favourites, but you certainly cannot rule them out. Elsewhere, all eyes will be on the crowds and television viewing figures.
The Kentucky Derby can act as a barometer for fan interest and a general health check for the popularity of global horse racing.
